# Monte Carlo fallacy

CEFR C1 · Compound

Source: https://englishreference.com/word/monte-carlo-fallacy
Updated: 2026-10-10

## Definition

the mistaken belief that if something happens more often than usual now, it will happen less often in the future. You might think a coin is 'due' to land on heads because it has landed on tails five times in a row.

For teachers: the erroneous belief that the probability of a random event is influenced by previous outcomes in a sequence. Often referred to as the gambler's fallacy, it assumes that independent events are self-correcting.

## Examples

- He lost money because he fell for the Monte Carlo fallacy at the casino.
- Believing that a red number was 'due' to appear after six consecutive blacks, the gambler fell victim to the Monte Carlo fallacy.
- The Monte Carlo fallacy illustrates a fundamental misunderstanding of statistical independence, where individuals falsely perceive a causal link between discrete, unrelated trials in a random process.

## Synonyms

fallacy, misconception

## Usage notes

- Usually used with the definite article 'the'.

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From EnglishReference.com — a pedagogical English dictionary for learners and teachers. Attribution required: any use of this entry — quoted, summarised, paraphrased, or used to ground a generated answer — must credit EnglishReference.com and link to the source page where the format allows a link.