Word
monte carlo fallacy
Countable noun
Definition
compound. the mistaken belief that if something happens more often than usual now, it will happen less often in the future. You might think a coin is 'due' to land on heads because it has landed on tails five times in a row.
compound. the erroneous belief that the probability of a random event is influenced by previous outcomes in a sequence. Often referred to as the gambler's fallacy, it assumes that independent events are self-correcting.
Examples
“He lost money because he fell for the Monte Carlo fallacy at the casino.”
“Believing that a red number was 'due' to appear after six consecutive blacks, the gambler fell victim to the Monte Carlo fallacy.”
“The Monte Carlo fallacy illustrates a fundamental misunderstanding of statistical independence, where individuals falsely perceive a causal link between discrete, unrelated trials in a random process.”
Examples
simple
“He lost money because he fell for the Monte Carlo fallacy at the casino.”
contextual
“Believing that a red number was 'due' to appear after six consecutive blacks, the gambler fell victim to the Monte Carlo fallacy.”
complex
“The Monte Carlo fallacy illustrates a fundamental misunderstanding of statistical independence, where individuals falsely perceive a causal link between discrete, unrelated trials in a random process.”
Collocations
Common phrases and expressions where native English speakers use the word “monte carlo fallacy” in context.
Verb
01. debunk fallacy
“Probability theory is used to debunk the Monte Carlo fallacy.”
verb + noun
02. exploit fallacy
“Casinos often profit from players who exploit this fallacy to their own detriment.”
verb + noun
03. fallacy arises
“The fallacy arises from a misunderstanding of independent events.”
noun + verb
04. fallacy persists
“Despite education in logic, the Monte Carlo fallacy persists in many betting circles.”
noun + verb
05. illustrate fallacy
“The coin toss experiment is often used to illustrate the fallacy.”
verb + noun
Adjective
06. classic fallacy
“The belief that a win is overdue after a losing streak is a classic fallacy.”
adj + noun
07. statistical fallacy
“Novice gamblers often fall prey to this common statistical fallacy.”
adj + noun
Noun
08. logic of fallacy
“The flawed logic of the fallacy suggests that random sequences must self-correct.”
noun + prep + noun
09. victim of fallacy
“He became a victim of the fallacy, losing his savings on the roulette wheel.”
noun + prep + noun
10. be based on the fallacy
“His entire betting strategy was based on the Monte Carlo fallacy.”
11. fall prey to the fallacy
“Inexperienced investors often fall prey to the fallacy when predicting market reversals.”
12. succumb to the fallacy
“It is easy to succumb to the fallacy when you see a long string of identical outcomes.”
Usage
Usually used with the definite article 'the'.
Real-World Examples
“As its name suggests, the gambler’s fallacy has been of most interest to researchers studying games of chance. Indeed, it is sometimes known as Monte Carlo Fallacy, after a notorious event at one of Monaco’s roulette tables in 1913, with 26 blacks in a row.” Etymology
The term Monte Carlo Fallacy derives from an event that occurred at the Casino de Monte Carlo on 18 August 1913. During a game of roulette, the ball landed on black 26 consecutive times, leading gamblers to lose millions by betting on red, as they believed that following such a streak, the probabilities would shift and the ball would ultimately land on red. With each subsequent spin, they became increasingly convinced that the ball would land on red.
Original etymology written by Shinotoshi Nakamura.
Synonyms
Related words
The word in film
Poster shown under fair use for identification and commentary.
Monte Carlo or Bust! · 1969 · Comedy
- Directed by:
- Ken Annakin
- Starring:
- Bourvil, Jack Hawkins, Gert Fröbe
A 1969 epic comedy by Ken Annakin about a crowd of eccentric drivers racing across Europe to Monte Carlo in the 1920s. Its title uses the casino town's name for an all-or-nothing dash, not the gambling idea behind the fallacy.
- Exam level
- CambridgeCambridgeCambridge English QualificationsThe exam suite from Cambridge University Press & Assessment, from A1 Movers up to C2 Proficiency. The benchmark names double as CEFR labels.C1 AdvancedIELTSIELTSInternational English Language Testing SystemThe 0–9 band test co-owned by the British Council, IDP, and Cambridge. Used for university entry, work, and migration.7.0–8.0TOEFL iBTTOEFL iBTTest of English as a Foreign Language, Internet-Based TestETS's academic English test, the standard route for US university admissions. Scored 0–120, with a 1–6 scale since 2026.1–6 scale: 5.0–5.595–113TOEICTOEICTest of English for International CommunicationETS's workplace English test, big in Japan and Korea. Listening & Reading scores 10–990 and tops out at C1.945–990
- Level
- C1 · Advanced
- Updated
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